Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7c0e…8177 sports 1306 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,678 (-5%) realized −$3,553 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%775W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$784est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days−$1,491
14 days−$1,070
30 days−$3,924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,435
other 4% −$138
world 1% −$453
crypto 0% −$49
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -17.5% -25.3% 49% 47% -29.6%
≤30d 341 -5.2% -14.2% 58% 55% -20.7%
≤90d 1077 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 57% -14.0%
all 1296 -0.5% -9.9% 60% 57% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 57% -14.0%
10% -18.6% 50% -22.3%
15% -26.4% 42% -29.8%
20% -33.6% 31% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$43 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$3,553
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses775 / 521
Est. fees paid−$784
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1296 / 1306
History coverage228d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $210 $182 −$28 (-13%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $115 $61 −$54 (-47%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 427 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $55 +$45 +82%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $161 +$52 +32%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $36 +$39 +109%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $56 +$2 +4%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? A Jun 19 $61 +$72 +118%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 Jun 19 $15 +$32 +210%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$28 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $151 +$39 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $30 +$16 +54%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $33 +$27 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $78 −$59 -76%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $47 +$31 +65%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $158 −$157 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 +$29 +76%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $43 +$9 +21%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $78 +$25 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$38 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $89 +$35 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$41 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 +$29 +46%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $49 +$14 +28%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $500 −$448 -90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $188 −$186 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $98 +$25 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $539 −$537 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $31 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $73 −$72 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $141 +$14 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $499 +$152 +30%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherla Jun 15 $46 +$34 +74%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 +$17 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 50¢ $25 18m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $25 10h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND BUY 70¢ $101 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $55 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 95¢ $74 13h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $161 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND United States vs. Australia: Unit BUY 65¢ $202 13h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $36 14h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 61¢ $58 14h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY 62¢ $101 14h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $56 14h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $24 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $4 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 78¢ $101 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $35 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $101 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 32¢ $15 33h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $190 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 79¢ $151 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $35 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $19 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? A BUY 45¢ $61 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $47 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $30 38h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 98¢ $61 41h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $33 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $19 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.47 · official $729.47 · 2882 history records