Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7c0b…568c crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%25W / 10L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$762per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% −$4
tech 24% −$7
sports 23% −$6
other 17% −$5
economics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 35 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,508) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses25 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage197d
Avg bet$762
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? May 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10? Mar 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 10 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 23 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 23 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 23 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 23 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 15? Feb 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 4? Feb 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $3,588 −$4 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 20 $3,623 −$4 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 20 $3,626 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? Jan 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $3,180 −$3 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $3,166 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 11 $3,187 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 09 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Jan 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 25? Dec 28 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 17? Dec 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 12? Dec 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 10? Dec 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Dec 08 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $50 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $33 39d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 40d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $58 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $35 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $33 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 120d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 121d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 121d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $30 121d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $45 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $3,559 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3,588 154d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $3,619 154d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3,623 154d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,622 154d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,626 154d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? BUY No 100¢ $35 155d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,177 163d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,180 163d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,163 163d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,166 163d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,184 163d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,187 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.89 · official $56.89 (match) · 77 history records