Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c0b…b450 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$21
14 days−$28
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$23
politics 25% −$8
sports 18% −$8
crypto 12% −$8
world 7% −$5
finance 3% −$4
culture 3% −$8
tech 2% −$2
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 67 -0.9% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 115 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 131 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 111
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage104d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $250 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 20 $106 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 19 $58 −$2 -4%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $153 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $88 −$3 -3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $245 −$7 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $145 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 15 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $60 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $489 $0 +0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $53 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 07 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $47 −$4 -9%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 49m
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $68 1h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $68 8h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 9h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 12h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 17h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $52 18h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $52 22h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 22h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $54 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $54 36h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 37h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 44h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 44h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $41 44h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $59 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $51 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $51 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.97 · official $44.97 (match) · 508 history records