trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -48.2% | -53.1% | 50% | 0% | -20.6% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -48.2% | -53.1% | 50% | 0% | -20.6% |
| all | 20 | -83.0% | -84.6% | 10% | 0% | -83.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -84.6% | 0% | -83.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -86.1% | 0% | -85.4% |
| 15% | -87.4% | 0% | -86.8% |
| 20% | -88.7% | 0% | -88.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $12,657 | $6,508 | −$6,149 (-49%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | Yes | 7¢ | 9¢ | $4,777 | $6,233 | +$1,456 (+30%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? | Yes | 9¢ | 2¢ | $7,001 | $1,896 | −$5,105 (-73%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | Jun 14 | $3,309 | +$121 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | Jun 14 | $615 | −$600 | -98% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 02 | $3,000 | −$1,357 | -45% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 28 | $5,194 | −$5,194 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 28 | $491 | −$491 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 06 | $7,354 | −$1,860 | -25% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | May 06 | $1,486 | +$106 | +7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4? | Apr 04 | $2,830 | −$2,830 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4? | Apr 04 | $17,595 | −$17,593 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 28 | $1,426 | −$1,426 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 28 | $1,200 | −$1,200 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 28 | $1,200 | −$1,200 | -100% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 28 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Jan 20 | $1,306 | −$1,306 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? | Jan 13 | $5,678 | −$5,678 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? | Jan 09 | $6,000 | −$6,000 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Hornets | Jan 07 | $2,139 | −$2,139 | -100% |
| US inauguration on January 20? | Jan 07 | $790 | −$790 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? | Jan 07 | $5,400 | −$5,400 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Jan 07 | $999 | −$999 | -100% |