Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7c04…1844 other 728 markets active 1h ago coverage 677d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$301 (+0%) realized +$302 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%417W / 297L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$695
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$87
sports 12% +$562
world 2% −$37
economics 1% +$13
finance 1% −$70
crypto 0% −$145
politics 0% −$17
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +12.5% +1.8% 37% 27% -1.1%
≤30d 42 -5.0% -14.0% 31% 24% -8.0%
≤90d 78 -18.4% -26.1% 29% 23% -15.2%
all 714 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 45% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 45% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 36% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 29% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$32 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

677d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$302
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses417 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions2
Markets (closed)714 / 728
History coverage677d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 67¢ 66¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $916 +$7 +1%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $335 +$398 +119%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $100 +$216 +216%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $614 −$57 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $611 +$4 +1%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $34 −$33 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $710 −$10 -1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $66 +$67 +101%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $33 −$30 -91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $558 +$3 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$35 -69%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $406 +$334 +82%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $486 −$51 -11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $73 −$5 -7%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $616 −$76 -12%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $71 −$22 -31%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $70 −$68 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Neth Jun 21 $82 +$186 +228%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2 Jun 21 $61 +$84 +137%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $719 −$38 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $716 −$16 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $410 −$400 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $409 −$9 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $461 −$47 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $33 +$36 +109%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $387 −$97 -25%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $338 +$63 +19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $308 −$38 -12%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score May 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $86 −$84 -98%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score May 08 $56 +$29 +52%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 +$26 +532%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? May 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 40¢ $923 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 67¢ $35 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 39¢ $916 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $48 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $45 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $335 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Senegal BUY 52¢ $98 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 31¢ $100 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 20¢ $558 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $614 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $468 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $7 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $3 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $8 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $26 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $5 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $2 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $2 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $25 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $2 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 40¢ $66 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 39¢ $611 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $34 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $67 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $193 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $67 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $50 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.48 · official $64.48 (match) · 1622 history records