Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7B 0x7bff…7cd6 weather 531 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,438 (-2%) realized −$4,699 · open +$261
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%493W / 13L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$532per market
Trades / day199.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$68,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,938
7 days−$10,142
14 days−$9,966
30 days−$6,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$3,635
world 6% +$367
other 6% −$232
politics 3% +$330
sports 1% −$752
crypto 0% +$27
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -3.1% -12.3% 95% 3% -17.0%
≤30d 506 +18.9% +7.6% 97% 4% -12.5%
≤90d 506 +18.9% +7.6% 97% 4% -12.5%
all 506 +18.9% +7.6% 97% 4% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 4% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 3% -20.9%
15% -12.1% 3% -28.5%
20% -20.7% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$835 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$68,086
Realized−$4,699
Unrealized+$261
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses493 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions56
Markets (closed)506 / 531
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$532
Trades / day199.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $28,942 $29,073 +$131 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $16,241 $16,520 +$280 (+2%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $2,782 $2,926 +$144 (+5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,199 $2,254 +$55 (+2%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,144 $2,160 +$16 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,600 $1,600 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,415 $1,415 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,189 $1,189 +$1 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $849 $879 +$30 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $849 $850 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $646 $646 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $623 $624 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 89¢ 91¢ $565 $576 +$12 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $538 $538 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $536 $536 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $519 $520 +$0 (+0%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $496 $493 −$3 (-1%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $483 $486 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $447 $447 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $444 $444 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $440 $440 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $351 $351 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $296 $297 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? No 80¢ 67¢ $325 $271 −$54 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $229 $229 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in April? Jun 18 $1,173 −$1,173 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 17? Jun 18 $2,155 −$2,155 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12? Jun 18 $4,828 −$4,828 -100%
Will Trump say "Bunker" in May? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 18 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Trump name "Hillary" in April? Jun 18 $176 −$176 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17? Jun 18 $404 −$404 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? Jun 18 $576 −$576 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $119 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $157 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $452 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1,388 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $648 −$342 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $411 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $456 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $523 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $421 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $430 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1,232 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1,614 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 17 $234 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $747 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $432 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $338 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Jun 17 $307 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $346 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $748 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $116 +$10 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 1m
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24m
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 29m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 29m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 36m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 37m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 39m
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 46m
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 55m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $177 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $126 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $413 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,086.09 · official $68,086.09 (match) · 3500 history records