Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bfe…b1d4 other 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$40
sports 26% −$21
politics 8% −$8
culture 5% −$5
economics 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 79 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage125d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $439 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $451 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $579 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $301 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $201 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $273 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $227 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $356 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $235 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $300 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $501 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $286 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $381 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 15m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 5h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 17h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 18h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 23h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 24h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 29h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 30h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 35h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 37h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 41h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 42h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 46h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 47h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 3d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.19 · official $47.19 (match) · 1290 history records