Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bfc…f395 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized +$38 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 57% -20.7%
≤30d 7 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 57% -20.7%
≤90d 7 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 57% -20.7%
all 7 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 57% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 57% -20.7%
10% -13.3% 57% -28.3%
15% -21.7% 14% -35.2%
20% -29.4% 14% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $194 $175 −$19 (-10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 48¢ $160 $131 −$29 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $194 −$21 -11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$24 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $197 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $162 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $173 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $194 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 59¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 14¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.05 · official $314.19 · 31 history records