Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7bf8…8986 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$456 (+45%) realized +$449 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%26W / 13L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$327
14 days+$449
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$423
other 9% +$44
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +37.1% +24.1% 68% 68% +43.2%
≤30d 39 +30.9% +18.5% 67% 67% +33.7%
≤90d 39 +30.9% +18.5% 67% 67% +33.7%
all 39 +30.9% +18.5% 67% 67% +33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 67% +33.7%
10% +7.1% 67% +20.9%
15% -3.2% 62% +9.2%
20% -12.7% 56% -1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 18.91842503373084% → late 42.336432755071044% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$449
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses26 / 13
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage14d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 81¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+54%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 76¢ 86¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Juan Manuel Cerundolo 42¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jakub Mensik 13¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Mensik 43¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Iceland 41¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 52¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Under 44¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Fonseca 53¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Fonseca 59¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 34¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $76 +$67 +88%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 +$42 +206%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 +$19 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 13 $20 +$16 +79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $25 +$17 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$53 +104%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $20 +$14 +70%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $20 +$15 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 +$44 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $20 +$18 +90%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 06 $20 +$24 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $25 +$26 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $21 −$20 -98%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $20 +$11 +52%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $10 +$10 +97%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $51 +$42 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $46 +$72 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $20 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $20 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $25 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 9h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $30 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $25 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $20 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $20 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 45h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $25 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $30 3d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Iceland 41¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 34¢ $10 5d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 56¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.93 · official $79.93 (match) · 72 history records