Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bf7…ec7f other 98 markets active 4d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-17%) realized −$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$9
other 33% −$14
world 13% −$6
politics 6% −$2
sports 5% $0
tech 5% +$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.9% -1.5% 83% 25% -27.2%
≤30d 59 -23.3% -30.6% 61% 17% -33.4%
≤90d 60 -23.4% -30.7% 60% 17% -33.5%
all 60 -23.4% -30.7% 60% 17% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 17% -33.5%
10% -37.4% 7% -39.9%
15% -43.4% 5% -45.7%
20% -49.0% 5% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions38
Markets (closed)60 / 98
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 40¢ 71¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 63¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +157%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 27 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? May 26 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $3 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $2 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 95¢ $2 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 89¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.15 · official $51.15 (match) · 197 history records