Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bf6…5219 crypto 486 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,185 (-9%) realized −$1,053 · open −$132
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%284W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$124
14 days+$146
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$7
crypto 26% −$221
weather 15% −$341
world 15% −$262
politics 7% −$395
finance 3% +$217
sports 2% +$25
economics 2% −$115
tech 1% −$25
culture 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.2% +7.0% 62% 38% +24.6%
≤30d 34 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 24% -14.6%
≤90d 239 -12.5% -20.9% 53% 34% -18.0%
all 476 -6.1% -15.1% 60% 38% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 38% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 17% -23.9%
15% -30.6% 13% -31.2%
20% -37.4% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses284 / 192
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)476 / 486
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 36¢ $115 $107 −$8 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $107 $86 −$21 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $102 $77 −$25 (-24%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $74 −$51 (-41%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-16%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $30 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Janelle Kellman win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-86%)
Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Yes $4 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $11 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $97 +$30 +31%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $66 −$6 -9%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 07 $234 +$22 +9%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 01 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $196 −$166 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 29? May 30 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El May 30 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31? May 29 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? May 29 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $9 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +15%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 28 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? May 28 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $165 −$124 -75%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between May 27 $48 +$1 +2%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 26 $78 +$64 +83%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $92 +$34 +37%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $10 $0 -4%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$10 +92%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $53 −$29 -54%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 23 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $34 +$2 +4%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 16 $32 +$7 +22%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 15 $17 +$11 +68%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 15 $72 +$7 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $58 −$12 -20%
Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $12 +$2 +17%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 14 $87 −$82 -94%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? May 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 13? May 13 $11 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7AM ET May 13 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $57 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $7 4m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $17 49m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $5 59m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $11 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $21 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $127 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $36 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $103 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 20h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.63 · official $418.69 (match) · 3500 history records