Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7bf2…0ee9 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$867 (+8%) realized +$813 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$122
14 days−$122
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$494
other 23% −$255
sports 20% +$512
crypto 2% +$62
politics 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -63.0% -66.5% 0% 0% -87.3%
≤30d 8 -42.6% -48.1% 38% 38% -5.6%
≤90d 35 -3.1% -12.4% 51% 43% -2.5%
all 38 -1.7% -11.0% 55% 45% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 45% -0.1%
10% -19.6% 32% -9.7%
15% -27.3% 26% -18.4%
20% -34.4% 18% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$46 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$2,905
Realized+$813
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)38 / 49
History coverage105d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 91¢ $462 $546 +$84 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $401 $489 +$88 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $605 $412 −$193 (-32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 94¢ $325 $374 +$49 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $420 $337 −$83 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $184 $246 +$62 (+34%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $66 $195 +$129 (+195%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $48 −$7 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 52¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 −$7 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 −$116 -99%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $412 +$53 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $1,022 +$210 +21%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $147 +$75 +51%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 23 $140 −$96 -68%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 May 21 $50 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $590 +$99 +17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $74 +$31 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $250 +$19 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $315 +$71 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 04 $25 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 04 $31 +$80 +262%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? May 01 $330 +$33 +10%
Will Chelsea finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Apr 28 $35 +$5 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $120 −$81 -68%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $100 −$74 -74%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $130 +$112 +86%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 15 $300 +$111 +37%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $250 +$16 +6%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $65 −$29 -45%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $50 −$1 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $50 +$31 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $75 +$112 +149%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $40 +$31 +78%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $70 +$38 +54%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $170 −$113 -66%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 29 $30 −$24 -82%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 26 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $895 +$249 +28%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $470 +$8 +2%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $455 +$74 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 52¢ $36 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $20 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $116 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $130 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $411 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $205 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $430 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $429 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 8d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $332 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $240 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,905.40 · official $2,901.73 (match) · 266 history records