Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bec…0884 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,285 (-2%) realized −$1,277 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 31L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,032per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days−$46
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$423
crypto 44% −$1,697
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.2% +4.2% 100% 60% +3.0%
≤30d 16 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 31% -14.9%
≤90d 18 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 28% -18.2%
all 73 -2.6% -11.9% 58% 12% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 12% -10.9%
10% -20.3% 7% -19.4%
15% -28.0% 4% -27.2%
20% -35.0% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,344) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$157 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized−$1,277
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)73 / 80
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,032
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $167 $160 −$7 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 27¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$6 +32%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$10 +17%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$16 -58%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 09 $428 −$33 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $175 +$9 +5%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 09 $299 −$25 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 09 $220 −$44 -20%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 06 $55 −$9 -16%
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 +$15 +42%
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 +$8 +24%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 04 $244 −$17 -7%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $54 −$4 -8%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 29 $420 −$85 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 27 $28 −$28 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 08 $1,704 −$173 -10%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 08 $2,657 +$269 +10%
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $922 +$529 +57%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Feb 25 $3,240 −$99 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 25 $6,913 −$3,051 -44%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in February? Feb 21 $693 +$44 +6%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Feb 20 $1,353 −$188 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 20 $4,150 −$14 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 18 $5,598 +$586 +10%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Feb 12 $200 −$28 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 12 $760 −$24 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 10 $4,058 +$233 +6%
Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 09 $307 +$16 +5%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Feb 09 $223 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 07 $1,645 +$804 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 07 $116 −$20 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 07 $191 +$32 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 06 $530 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 7? Feb 06 $873 −$23 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Feb 04 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 03 $145 +$20 +14%
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 03 $92 −$15 -16%
Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 03 $481 +$13 +3%
Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 03 $173 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 03 $78 −$1 -1%
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 03 $666 −$521 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $7 $0 +1%
Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 03 $112 +$6 +5%
Tria FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 03 $143 +$7 +5%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 03 $429 +$8 +2%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 03 $431 +$5 +1%
Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 03 $473 +$18 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $5 32m
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $5 33m
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 33m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $34 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 96¢ $70 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $12 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 27¢ $21 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $51 5h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $155 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $50 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 70¢ $50 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $50 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $29 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 72¢ $233 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 81¢ $271 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $49 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $11 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $16 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 80¢ $163 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 61¢ $184 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 75¢ $158 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.90 · official $335.90 (match) · 361 history records