Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bec…4e95 other 14 markets active 3h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$145 (-35%) realized −$142 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$30
sports 28% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-59.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -54.9% -59.2% 27% 27% -47.7%
≤30d 11 -54.9% -59.2% 27% 27% -47.7%
≤90d 11 -54.9% -59.2% 27% 27% -47.7%
all 11 -54.9% -59.2% 27% 27% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.2% 27% -47.7%
10% -63.1% 9% -52.7%
15% -66.7% 0% -57.3%
20% -69.9% 0% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage13d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+75%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 +$12 +26%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$32 -69%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$16 -53%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -37%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 +$6 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $7 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $15 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $9 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $6 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $11 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.00 · official $73.00 (match) · 80 history records