Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7bec…3fe8 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$262 (+9%) realized +$264 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days+$33
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% +$228
sports 16% −$9
other 16% −$45
world 3% +$1
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.3% -24.3% 25% 25% -9.9%
≤30d 30 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 40% -2.3%
≤90d 30 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 40% -2.3%
all 30 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 40% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 40% -2.3%
10% -30.1% 20% -11.7%
15% -36.9% 10% -20.2%
20% -43.1% 7% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$11 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage20d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $289 $295 +$6 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $190 $175 −$15 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 $0 -6%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 −$10 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 25 $502 +$90 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 21 $99 −$4 -4%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$38 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$3 -42%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 17 $7 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 16 $6 +$2 +26%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 16 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $93 −$19 -21%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $30 +$7 +21%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $82 +$80 +97%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $31 −$13 -42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $183 −$9 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $554 +$105 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $112 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $6 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $23 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 8h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 8h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $142 8h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $152 17h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $196 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 28h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 95¢ $193 35h
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes 2¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 79¢ $161 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 77¢ $84 3d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 75¢ $87 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 72¢ $29 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 5d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 70¢ $91 6d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 7¢ $8 6d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 67¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $30 6d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.31 · official $501.31 (match) · 95 history records