Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7be8…0f50
crypto · 831 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$431 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$452 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$705
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses458 / 348
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions33
Markets (closed)806 / 831
History coverage27d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day102.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 33 History 806 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$109
14 days−$129
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 54¢ $144 $140 −$4 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $64 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 84¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+91%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 86¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 88¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $20 $30 +$11 (+55%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 87¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 60¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? No 81¢ 81¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 84¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ 30¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-39%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+232%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 36¢ 59¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$3 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $42 +$7 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$18 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +63%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $45 −$36 -81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 −$30 -86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$5 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$8 +172%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $29 +$3 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $67 +$43 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 +$28 +77%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $198 +$33 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$18 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? Jun 11 $30 +$5 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$5 +73%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$29 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$14 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 10 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% −$344
sports 37% −$192
other 7% +$31
world 2% +$39
finance 1% +$36
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $49 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $12 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $20 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $6 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $3 2h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $32 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +7.5% -2.8% 67% 52% -6.9%
≤30d 806 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 50% -12.1%
≤90d 806 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 50% -12.1%
all 806 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 50% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 50% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -20.5%
15% -27.1% 33% -28.2%
20% -34.3% 24% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $705.48 · official $705.50 (match) · 3500 history records