Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7be5…a53b other 1558 markets active 5h ago coverage 43d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-2%) realized −$42 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%1126W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$23
14 days−$14
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$28
other 31% −$29
politics 10% +$1
culture 9% −$2
tech 5% +$2
world 3% −$1
sports 1% −$12
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -9.5% -18.1% 88% 3% -19.1%
≤30d 992 -2.5% -11.8% 94% 7% -12.8%
≤90d 1190 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 6% -11.3%
all 1190 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 6% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 6% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 2% -19.8%
15% -27.4% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1126 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions479
Markets (closed)1190 / 1558
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 479 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 78¢ 86¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 70¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 66¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 46¢ 33¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 76¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No 85¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Citizens’ Movement (MC) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
E. Jean Carroll arrested by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Randy Zurcher be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Joyce Marie Griggs be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Joseph Palimeno be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Patrick Wilver be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will Defonsio Daniels be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sharon Stokes-Williamson be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the #2 global Netflix show this w Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this w Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the top US Netflix movie this week Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will "Creed III" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will "Ladies First" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will "David" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will "Poor Things" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this w Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will "The Witness" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will "Creed III" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY No 92¢ $1 5h
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 87¢ $1 5h
Will Fred M'membe win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 20h
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 97¢ $1 22h
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 98¢ $1 22h
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 98¢ $1 22h
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 98¢ $1 22h
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 98¢ $1 22h
Will Karolina Muchova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 22h
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 22h
Will Marie Bouzkova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 22h
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.05 · official $557.00 (match) · 3500 history records