Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7be4…6a36 other 45 markets active 4h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$4
economics 18% +$16
other 11% −$26
sports 2% −$8
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +5.3% -4.7% 17% 6% -7.3%
≤90d 33 -6.1% -15.1% 12% 3% -12.7%
all 44 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 2% -9.8%
10% -22.0% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage586d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $7 +$7 +97%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $12 +$1 +4%
Lightning vs. Kraken Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-13? Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Feb 13 $44 +$2 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $1,039 +$16 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $4,057 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $374 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 5h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 5h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 27h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 29h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $7 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.12 · official $25.12 (match) · 222 history records