Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7be1…40fb
other · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage295d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $71 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 +$1 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 05 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% −$2
other 26% +$1
politics 11% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $28 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $29 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $9 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $8 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $23 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $18 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $33 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $40 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $7 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $18 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 8% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 7% -9.8%
all 37 -0.8% -10.3% 27% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.87 · official $9.87 (match) · 202 history records