Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bdf…3223 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$3
politics 11% $0
crypto 9% $0
other 8% +$1
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 16 -0.0% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -5.9% -14.9% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 47 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage447d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $21 −$1 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $43 −$3 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 22 $16 $0 -1%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 18 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $10 $0 -4%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 02 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $1 $0 -33%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 31 $2 $0 -22%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 30 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Mar 29 $24 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 28? Mar 29 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $39 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $43 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $20 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $31 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.53 · official $39.53 (match) · 142 history records