Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7bde…6512 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate72%48W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +4.4% -5.6% 75% 74% -2.1%
≤30d 67 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 70% -8.6%
≤90d 67 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 70% -8.6%
all 67 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 70% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 70% -8.6%
10% -19.2% 46% -17.4%
15% -27.0% 30% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses48 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records