Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7bdd…c894 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,442 (+0%) realized +$1,442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%55W / 3L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$5,914per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1,660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$1,660
sports 7% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 57 -1.5% -10.9% 95% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 58 -1.5% -10.9% 95% 0% -9.1%
all 58 -1.5% -10.9% 95% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$109 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.23 per $1 lost it wins $16.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$1,442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses55 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage174d
Avg bet$5,914
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 92¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $384 −$109 -28%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 26? May 29 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26? May 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $154 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $35,374 +$178 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 26 $193 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 25? May 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 25? May 26 $35,744 +$108 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on May 25? May 26 $196 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 25? May 25 $252 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 25? May 25 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 25? May 25 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 25? May 25 $34,728 +$139 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $191 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 24? May 25 $170 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on May 24? May 25 $173 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 24? May 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $95 on May 24? May 25 $35,231 +$106 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? May 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 24? May 24 $34,600 +$69 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 24? May 24 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 24? May 24 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 24? May 24 $614 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $122 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 23? May 24 $132 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 23? May 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 23? May 24 $35,307 +$71 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 23? May 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on May 23? May 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $459 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? May 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 23? May 23 $490 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 23? May 23 $33,535 +$407 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 22? May 23 $34,113 +$414 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 22? May 23 $134 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? May 23 $168 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 22? May 23 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $191 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $110 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $52 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $274 21d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 99¢ $57 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $35,374 25d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $157 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $81 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $97 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $193 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $111 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $154 26d
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $35,744 26d
Will Solana reach $90 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $196 26d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $82 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $129 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $34,523 26d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $178 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $155 26d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $252 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $205 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $147 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $152 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $191 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 27d
Will Solana reach $95 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $35,231 27d
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $105 27d
Will Solana reach $90 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $173 27d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $170 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.03 · official $84.03 (match) · 126 history records