Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7bdc…9b4c other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,219 (+28%) realized +$1,537 · open −$318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$1,470
14 days+$1,468
30 days+$1,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$1,198
crypto 8% +$257
sports 7% −$305
politics 7% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.7% +8.3% 70% 70% +28.9%
≤30d 11 +8.8% -1.6% 64% 64% +28.9%
≤90d 11 +8.8% -1.6% 64% 64% +28.9%
all 13 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 54% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 54% +20.1%
10% -24.7% 54% +8.6%
15% -32.0% 54% -1.9%
20% -38.6% 38% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$112 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized+$1,537
Unrealized−$318
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage128d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 34¢ $650 $332 −$318 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $355 +$259 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $354 +$202 +57%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $354 +$202 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$222 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $157 −$155 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $557 +$407 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $555 +$254 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $725 +$330 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 12 $224 −$195 -87%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $555 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $613 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $355 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $152 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $354 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $354 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $157 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $964 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $557 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $555 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,055 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $725 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 7d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh BUY No 12¢ $10 128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh BUY No 12¢ $81 128d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 9¢ $69 128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh BUY No 12¢ $83 128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh SELL No 7¢ $29 128d
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh BUY No 10¢ $50 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.40 · official $361.41 · 26 history records