Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7B 0x7bdb…bb58 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$825 (+28%) realized +$849 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days+$980
14 days+$720
30 days+$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$838
other 16% −$55
world 1% −$2
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +37.0% +23.9% 22% 22% +43.0%
≤30d 40 +27.9% +15.7% 22% 22% +19.3%
≤90d 40 +27.9% +15.7% 22% 22% +19.3%
all 40 +27.9% +15.7% 22% 22% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 22% +19.3%
10% +4.6% 22% +7.9%
15% -5.5% 22% -2.5%
20% -14.7% 22% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +124% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$55 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$849
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions9
Markets (closed)40 / 49
History coverage20d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 44¢ 45¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 24¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$453 +442%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$282 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$768 +1494%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$306 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $58 −$56 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $202 −$198 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $80 −$19 -24%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$20 -20%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $82 −$1 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $36 +$64 +176%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $11 +$19 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $103 8h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 24¢ $21 18h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 26h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $47 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.38 · official $307.39 (match) · 78 history records