Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7B 0x7bd8…d98f other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-17%) realized −$185 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%21W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$157
sports 40% +$74
politics 10% +$1
tech 4% $0
world 2% +$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +38.4% +25.2% 57% 57% +37.0%
≤30d 21 +38.4% +25.2% 57% 57% +37.0%
≤90d 31 +21.0% +9.5% 48% 48% +27.0%
all 57 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 32% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 32% -26.9%
10% -27.9% 32% -33.9%
15% -34.9% 32% -40.3%
20% -41.3% 30% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses21 / 36
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage223d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 100¢ $45 $100 +$54 (+121%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 +$6 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 +$30 +140%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 +$21 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +99%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 +$13 +95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$7 +74%
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +263%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +353%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $2 +$3 +112%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $5 +$14 +273%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be red/pink? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Dec 15 $62 $0 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Canada recession before 2027? Nov 18 $11 −$1 -7%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Nov 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Sharks vs. Kraken Nov 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Devils vs. Blackhawks Nov 13 $6 +$7 +122%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Nov 12 $8 +$16 +191%
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Nov 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Trump attend UFC 322? Nov 11 $34 −$34 -100%
North Korea missile launch by November 15? Nov 11 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 10 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $46 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 4h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $12 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $21 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $24 11h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $3 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 79¢ $27 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $25 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 68¢ $17 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $3 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $11 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 83¢ $13 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 34h
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $2 35h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $2 37h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $12 37h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $17 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $10 2d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.66 · official $111.66 (match) · 263 history records