Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bd6…25bf sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%153W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$8
14 days+$51
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$3
other 3% +$3
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 132 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 2% -10.7%
≤90d 171 -0.9% -10.4% 89% 4% -9.5%
all 171 -0.9% -10.4% 89% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses153 / 18
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage85d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $38 +$2 +4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $38 +$2 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $38 −$8 -21%
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Kerem Yilmaz Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Tanasie vs Sara Victoria Balan Jun 20 $10 −$4 -38%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
ITF Maanshan: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $19 +$1 +5%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $48 −$28 -59%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $49 +$1 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 19 $19 +$1 +7%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $19 −$16 -85%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $48 +$2 +5%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $48 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $19 +$1 +6%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $47 +$3 +6%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $19 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $48 +$2 +5%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $48 +$2 +5%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $47 −$11 -24%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $48 +$1 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $48 +$2 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $19 +$1 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $19 +$1 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $18 +$2 +8%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $94 +$6 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $19 $0 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $96 +$4 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 75¢ $30 57m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $19 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 94¢ $19 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $38 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 96¢ $38 1h
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Tanasie vs Sara Victoria Balan SELL Lavinia Tanasie 60¢ $6 20h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz SELL Berfu Cengiz 63¢ $6 20h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Berfu Cengiz 95¢ $10 21h
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Kerem Yilmaz BUY Keshav Chopra 97¢ $10 21h
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk BUY Daria Yesypchuk 94¢ $9 21h
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Tanasie vs Sara Victoria Balan BUY Lavinia Tanasie 95¢ $10 21h
ITF Maanshan: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Matthew Dellavedova BUY Matthew Dellavedova 96¢ $10 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $17 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $2 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $19 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 98¢ $38 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 98¢ $49 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 98¢ $11 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $48 26h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 96¢ $19 27h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $48 27h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 94¢ $19 29h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 97¢ $49 29h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 96¢ $48 35h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide SELL Dalibor Svrcina 15¢ $3 38h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Xiyu Wang 93¢ $19 39h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 95¢ $19 39h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 99¢ $20 40h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 95¢ $19 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records