Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

7B 0x7bd6…e4d5 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 726d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized +$740 · open −$767

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$283per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$1,615now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days+$4

14 days+$4

30 days+$4

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-4.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+96.1%	+77.4%	100%	100%	+77.4%
≤30d	1	+96.1%	+77.4%	100%	100%	+77.4%
≤90d	1	+96.1%	+77.4%	100%	100%	+77.4%
all	15	+5.4%	-4.6%	67%	27%	-10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.6%	27%	-10.3%
10%	-13.7%	13%	-18.9%
15%	-22.1%	13%	-26.7%
20%	-29.7%	13%	-33.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +96% too few recent

Fragile wins

60% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -6% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage

Net worth$1,615

Realized+$740

Unrealized−$767

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage726d

Avg bet$283

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	50¢	98¢	$800	$1,567	+$767 (+96%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	50¢	2¢	$800	$33	−$767 (-96%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	91¢	90¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Jun 16	$4	+$4	+96%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Feb 20	$800	+$1	+0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Feb 19	$7	+$1	+17%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?	Sep 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League?	Sep 18	$13	+$1	+4%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	Jan 23	$77	−$29	-38%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	Jan 22	$100	−$40	-40%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	Jan 22	$3	$0	+11%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend	Dec 21	$13	+$29	+223%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31?	Dec 03	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?	Dec 03	$172	+$1	+1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 30	$1,271	+$25	+2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Sep 03	$22	+$1	+4%
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister?	Jul 30	$38	+$2	+4%
Will Shkreli deactivate his X account by Friday?	Jun 27	$670	−$12	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	91¢	$15	1h
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL No	99¢	$801	116d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY No	99¢	$800	116d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	BUY Yes	51¢	$4	270d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	270d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	BUY Yes	85¢	$7	270d
Liverpool wins the Premier League?	BUY Yes	96¢	$13	470d
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	SELL Yes	0¢	$17	508d
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	SELL Yes	0¢	$31	509d
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	BUY Yes	0¢	$77	509d
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	SELL Yes	0¢	$60	509d
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	BUY Yes	0¢	$36	509d
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	BUY Yes	0¢	$30	509d
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?	BUY Yes	0¢	$34	509d
Ripple ETF approved by July 31?	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	559d
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend	BUY Yes	31¢	$13	559d
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?	BUY No	99¢	$172	562d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	BUY Yes	90¢	$3	614d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	BUY Yes	97¢	$22	685d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	59¢	$22	685d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	59¢	$621	718d
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister?	BUY Yes	96¢	$38	726d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	57¢	$600	726d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	56¢	$638	726d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	57¢	$649	726d
Will Shkreli deactivate his X account by Friday?	SELL No	95¢	$649	726d
Will Shkreli deactivate his X account by Friday?	BUY No	97¢	$670	726d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,614.92 · official $1,614.92 (match) · 38 history records