Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7bd3…3a42 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,510 (-18%) realized −$2,508 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%59W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$2,434
sports 7% −$94
tech 1% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 50% -15.3%
all 113 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 40% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 40% -26.2%
10% -24.2% 27% -33.3%
15% -31.5% 19% -39.7%
20% -38.2% 9% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$76 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$2,508
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses59 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage241d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $171 $169 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $259 −$86 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $183 +$75 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $282 +$54 +19%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$102 -67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 +$66 +71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$120 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 +$12 +6%
Will Kayserispor vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? Feb 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $72 −$36 -50%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $74 −$1 -2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 21 $15 +$2 +14%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $132 −$117 -89%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $43 +$21 +48%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $491 −$448 -91%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $280 −$113 -40%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $185 +$21 +11%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $137 +$48 +35%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CF Pachuca vs. CF América end in a draw? Jan 19 $41 +$9 +22%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Club Santos Laguna vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? Jan 19 $22 +$17 +77%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $17 +$4 +26%
Will Vitória SC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Jan 18 $114 −$96 -85%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $81 +$33 +41%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $71 +$10 +14%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $633 −$562 -89%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $414 +$219 +53%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $168 −$35 -21%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $142 −$17 -12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $145 −$3 -2%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $201 −$56 -28%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $252 +$124 +49%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $137 +$115 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $139 +$70 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $144 −$6 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $279 −$189 -68%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $100 −$45 -45%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $180 −$120 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $637 −$142 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $280 +$69 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $437 +$67 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $276 +$12 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $365 −$89 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $351 −$133 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 28 $251 +$13 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $154 −$53 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $173 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $173 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $259 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $259 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $183 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $124 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $59 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $50 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $152 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $152 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $158 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $92 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $92 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $212 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $199 4d
Will Kayserispor vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 115d
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-02-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $36 115d
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 115d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-02-22? SELL Yes 48¢ $72 115d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 49¢ $74 115d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 115d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 116d
Will RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 116d
Will RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 116d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? SELL No 10¢ $15 116d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? BUY No 88¢ $132 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.80 · official $168.80 (match) · 282 history records