Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bd0…f9e7 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-6%) realized −$64 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$46
other 13% −$6
crypto 5% +$4
world 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 44% -13.9%
≤30d 25 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 44% -13.9%
≤90d 25 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 44% -13.9%
all 25 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 44% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 44% -13.9%
10% -21.9% 40% -22.1%
15% -29.4% 40% -29.7%
20% -36.3% 36% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions10
Markets (closed)25 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 64¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 52¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7 +$18 +257%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$48 +156%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$37 +121%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$34 +112%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$8 +149%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $38 +$50 +132%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $29 +$39 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $67 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $65 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $32 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.37 · official $321.24 · 53 history records