Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7bcd…a2b5 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$348 (+10%) realized +$349 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$357
7 days+$304
14 days+$304
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$267
sports 9% +$721
world 8% −$99
crypto 2% −$51
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.8% -6.1% 14% 12% -0.6%
≤30d 42 +3.8% -6.1% 14% 12% -0.6%
≤90d 42 +3.8% -6.1% 14% 12% -0.6%
all 44 +3.7% -6.2% 18% 11% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 11% -0.9%
10% -15.2% 11% -10.4%
15% -23.4% 11% -19.1%
20% -30.9% 11% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$45 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$349
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 36
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage524d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia leading at halftime? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$8 -31%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$7 -12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $213 −$208 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $309 −$11 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$100 -50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +168%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$4 -2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$830 +1467%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $178 +$403 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 −$83 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$28 -83%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$169 +413%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $459 −$452 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $190 −$153 -80%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $447 +$488 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Elon be worth $500b by Trump inauguration? Jan 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 1h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 21h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 41h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 41h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 43h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 43h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $51 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 43h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $59 44h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.65 · official $193.65 (match) · 129 history records