Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bcb…8f7d crypto 770 markets active 4d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$528 (-4%) realized −$528 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%395W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$632
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -6.9% -15.8% 55% 52% -11.8%
≤30d 42 -6.9% -15.8% 55% 52% -11.8%
≤90d 42 -6.9% -15.8% 55% 52% -11.8%
all 770 +2.2% -7.5% 51% 50% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 50% -13.2%
10% -16.3% 49% -21.5%
15% -24.4% 48% -29.1%
20% -31.8% 46% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$528
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses395 / 375
Open positions0
Markets (closed)770 / 770
History coverage121d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 770 Trades
no open positions (275 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$21 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 20 $20 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 20 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 20 $9 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 20 $7 +$8 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 20 $35 +$17 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 20 $24 +$20 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1436 history records