trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +164.8% | +139.6% | 50% | 50% | +38.9% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +76.5% | +59.7% | 33% | 33% | +25.4% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +16.1% | +5.0% | 44% | 44% | -0.9% |
| all | 16 | +16.1% | +5.0% | 44% | 44% | -0.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.0% | 44% | -0.9% |
| 10% | -5.0% | 44% | -10.4% |
| 15% | -14.2% | 38% | -19.1% |
| 20% | -22.6% | 25% | -27.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 21¢ | 21¢ | $30 | $30 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $7 | $9 | +$1 (+18%) |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $2 | −$8 (-78%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $39 | +$165 | +420% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 11 | $100 | −$90 | -90% |
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? | May 16 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 09 | $10 | −$10 | -95% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 09 | $21 | −$20 | -95% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 09 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | May 09 | $50 | +$25 | +49% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | May 09 | $100 | +$45 | +45% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | Apr 26 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $20 | +$71 | +354% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 12 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 12 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Apr 12 | $120 | −$20 | -16% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Apr 12 | $61 | +$17 | +28% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Apr 11 | $15 | +$14 | +95% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Apr 11 | $20 | +$14 | +72% |