Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7B 0x7bc7…3976 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,816 (+1%) realized +$7,474 · open +$3,342
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate95%40W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$14,349per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$54,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4,646
30 days+$4,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$9,788
other 11% +$88
politics 3% +$326
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 +5.5% -4.5% 94% 25% -3.0%
≤90d 31 +2.3% -7.4% 94% 19% -7.9%
all 42 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 14% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 14% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 7% -17.3%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$20,764) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$972 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$54,578
Realized+$7,474
Unrealized+$3,342
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses40 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)42 / 54
History coverage108d
Avg bet$14,349
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $17,500 $17,600 +$100 (+1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 92¢ $8,790 $9,976 +$1,186 (+13%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $6,508 $6,768 +$260 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 86¢ $4,100 $4,282 +$182 (+4%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $3,836 $4,280 +$444 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 62¢ $3,251 $3,844 +$594 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 74¢ $2,374 $2,783 +$409 (+17%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $2,185 $2,502 +$317 (+14%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $1,244 $1,267 +$24 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 81¢ $786 $885 +$100 (+13%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $662 $388 −$274 (-41%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $128 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $2,243 +$302 +13%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $308 +$96 +31%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $11,623 +$1,669 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $2,218 +$32 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $4,462 +$131 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $6,767 +$233 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $9,800 +$200 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $27,650 +$2,350 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 25 $91 +$8 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $191 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $218 +$179 +82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $506 +$28 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $551 +$10 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? May 06 $636 +$173 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $294 +$6 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 01 $1,570 −$1,570 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 01 $81 +$18 +22%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 01 $8,792 +$216 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 01 $9,150 +$849 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $19,656 +$1,189 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $854 +$50 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $727 +$56 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $79,980 +$120 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $34,495 +$35 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $87,812 +$88 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $20,764 +$21 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $49,950 +$50 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 14? Mar 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $95,785 +$215 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 11? Mar 12 $46,693 +$38 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 10? Mar 11 $53,538 +$54 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? Mar 10 $10,790 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $9,578 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $33,649 +$34 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $31,912 +$32 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $4,650 +$288 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33m
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50m
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 4h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $33 4h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 5h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,578.04 · official $54,578.15 (match) · 2204 history records