Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7bc7…51ad crypto 753 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$576 (+13%) realized +$576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%164W / 575L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$112
14 days+$66
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$474
weather 6% +$73
sports 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +10.4% -0.1% 24% 24% +9.1%
≤30d 352 +23.5% +11.7% 24% 24% +4.0%
≤90d 739 +15.3% +4.3% 22% 22% +2.2%
all 739 +15.3% +4.3% 22% 22% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 22% +2.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.7% 21% -7.6%
15% -14.8% 20% -16.5%
20% -23.2% 20% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$5 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses164 / 575
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)739 / 753
History coverage51d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 739 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$52 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$12 +248%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$15 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$40 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$12 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$12 +221%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $78 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2134 history records