Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bc6…497d crypto 1282 markets active 5d ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$223 (-4%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%565W / 687L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day105.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$159
14 days−$121
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -19.9% -27.5% 35% 35% -47.4%
≤30d 971 +3.8% -6.1% 41% 41% -11.2%
≤90d 1252 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 41% -13.4%
all 1252 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 41% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 37% -21.7%
15% -25.3% 32% -29.3%
20% -32.6% 31% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses565 / 687
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1252 / 1282
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day105.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1252 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records