Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bc6…1ced sports 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$668 (-15%) realized −$666 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%108W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$159
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$556
other 17% −$69
world 4% −$58
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% −$12
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.7% -18.3% 25% 25% -24.7%
≤30d 44 -44.8% -50.0% 9% 9% -48.8%
≤90d 354 -14.6% -22.8% 31% 30% -24.2%
all 354 -14.6% -22.8% 31% 30% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 30% -24.2%
10% -30.2% 28% -31.5%
15% -36.9% 27% -38.1%
20% -43.1% 26% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$666
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses108 / 246
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions9
Markets (closed)354 / 363
History coverage75d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+150%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 +$21 +413%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 29 $10 +$18 +177%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $8 +$8 +101%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $20 −$2 -8%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$114 +1110%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $8 −$2 -18%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Ostrava: Rudolf Molleker vs Henri Squire Apr 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Aix en Provence: Thomas Faurel vs David Goffin Apr 29 $19 −$19 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 19¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $28 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $10 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 26¢ $19 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $5 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $5 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $5 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $21 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $20 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 33¢ $10 13d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 13d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.17 · official $57.17 (match) · 796 history records