Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bc5…9f03 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$160 (-10%) realized −$100 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$197
other 9% −$20
sports 2% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 42% -21.3%
≤30d 24 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 42% -21.3%
≤90d 24 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 42% -21.3%
all 24 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 42% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 42% -21.3%
10% -34.0% 29% -28.8%
15% -40.4% 21% -35.7%
20% -46.2% 17% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$51 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $178 +$50 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$185 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $86 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$65 +128%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $113 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $81 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 58 history records