Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bc4…dc4e sports 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 659d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$46 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate68%65W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$27
14 days+$36
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$55
other 30% +$42
tech 12% +$15
crypto 4% +$13
finance 1% −$15
world 1% +$1
economics 0% +$5
culture 0% +$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.6% -6.2% 63% 47% -8.1%
≤30d 32 +0.4% -9.2% 62% 38% -8.5%
≤90d 59 -9.0% -17.7% 61% 31% -9.1%
all 95 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 34% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 34% -8.7%
10% -23.6% 20% -17.4%
15% -30.9% 12% -25.4%
20% -37.7% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

659d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses65 / 30
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage659d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 34¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 15¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 30¢ $21 $2 −$20 (-92%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Spurs 56¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 51¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 11¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$25 +121%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $151 +$20 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $234 +$14 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $71 +$84 +118%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $151 +$42 +28%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $28 +$3 +9%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $202 −$136 -67%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $122 −$44 -36%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $60 +$7 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $34 +$45 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $41 −$35 -85%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 10 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $113 +$10 +9%
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 03 $301 +$2 +1%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 02 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $45 −$6 -14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $53 +$11 +20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 29 $97 +$5 +5%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $250 +$2 +1%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 25 $43 +$12 +27%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $148 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 21 $142 +$4 +3%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 19 $105 −$1 -1%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 19 $151 −$3 -2%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 16 $98 +$6 +6%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $260 +$9 +3%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 06 $149 +$3 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 02 $186 +$10 +5%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 14 $109 +$18 +16%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $36 +$16 +46%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 03 $100 +$9 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $6 −$2 -39%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $22 −$6 -27%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $57 +$16 +28%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 27 $28 −$4 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $33 0m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $45 1m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 89¢ $171 1m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 12m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $248 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $151 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $234 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 15h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 99¢ $155 17h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 17h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 56¢ $31 18h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 21¢ $66 18h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 80¢ $67 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $60 23h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $28 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 94¢ $120 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 78¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $122 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $34 3d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? SELL No 90¢ $199 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $122 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.11 · official $22.11 (match) · 215 history records