Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7bc1…8db4
politics · 33 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
−$8,008 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$70,526 · open +$6,197
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$447,365
Realized+$70,526
Unrealized+$6,197
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions15
Markets (closed)40 / 33
History coverage10d
Avg bet$51,067
Trades / day190.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 15 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,464
7 days−$9,462
14 days+$70,526
30 days+$70,526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $199,754 $221,809 +$22,055 (+11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 70¢ 74¢ $52,913 $55,980 +$3,067 (+6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 97¢ $45,935 $50,894 +$4,958 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $34,992 $26,337 −$8,655 (-25%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 98¢ 100¢ $23,241 $23,536 +$295 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 92¢ 95¢ $20,101 $20,776 +$675 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 55¢ 46¢ $17,552 $14,658 −$2,894 (-16%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 33¢ 22¢ $20,854 $14,291 −$6,564 (-31%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $6,211 $8,053 +$1,842 (+30%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $6,070 $6,277 +$207 (+3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $2,715 $2,499 −$216 (-8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 18¢ 8¢ $3,600 $1,500 −$2,100 (-58%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 39¢ $114 $632 +$518 (+456%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6,935 $98 −$6,837 (-99%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 4¢ 1¢ $180 $26 −$154 (-86%)
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,027 $0 −$1,027 (-100%)
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 2¢ 0¢ $766 $0 −$766 (-100%)
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? No 14¢ 0¢ $1,580 $0 −$1,580 (-100%)
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 2¢ 0¢ $766 $0 −$766 (-100%)
Will Lee Jae-man win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,027 $0 −$1,027 (-100%)
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? No 13¢ 0¢ $2,110 $0 −$2,110 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $21,847 $0 −$21,847 (-100%)
Will Kang Min-gu win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,027 $0 −$1,027 (-100%)
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 2¢ 0¢ $766 $0 −$766 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Lee Jae-man win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Kang Min-gu win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Kim Han-koo win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Yoo Young-ha win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Seo Jae-heon win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Choi Eun-seok win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Yoon Jae-ok win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Lee Jin-sook win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Hong Seok-jun win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 10 $36 +$64 +178%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 10 $118 +$202 +171%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $950 +$1,600 +168%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $4,831 −$3,864 -80%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $224 −$224 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $11,349 +$12,231 +108%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $2,920 −$2,854 -98%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $6,308 −$6,236 -99%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $50,156 +$13,803 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $326,601 +$2,264 +1%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $50,686 +$7,321 +14%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $91,368 +$52,213 +57%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $74,172 +$12,170 +16%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $45,172 +$39,530 +88%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $33,244 −$14,796 -44%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $1,586 −$1,580 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $21,848 −$21,847 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 61% +$99,461
crypto 19% +$2,264
world 10% −$7,536
tech 8% −$7,522
sports 1% +$13,832
other 0% −$4,312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5,245 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10,725 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $4 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $7,471 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $103 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $490 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $3,010 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $234 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 34¢ $5 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $10 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $2,263 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $276 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $1,113 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $552 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $345 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $22 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $10,874 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $617 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $14 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $73 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $533 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $2,800 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $54 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $1,551 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 60¢ $72 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 60¢ $113 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $70 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $910 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+78.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -64.0% -67.4% 14% 14% -32.7%
≤30d 40 +97.0% +78.2% 25% 22% -3.0%
≤90d 40 +97.0% +78.2% 25% 22% -3.0%
all 40 +97.0% +78.2% 25% 22% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover190.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +78.2% 22% -3.0%
10% +61.2% 22% -12.3%
15% ← realistic here +45.6% 20% -20.7%
20% +31.3% 20% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447,365.33 · official $447,395.99 (match) · 1997 history records