Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bc1…fd94 politics 51 markets active 3d ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$2
politics 21% +$1
other 16% $0
sports 15% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.1% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 51 +1.1% -8.6% 22% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage281d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $53 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $25 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 25 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $42 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $46 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $31 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $47 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $16 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $12 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $37 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $33 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $3 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records