Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bbb…ad2e other 410 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized +$90 · open −$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%152W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,924now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$304
7 days+$510
14 days+$405
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$64
sports 29% −$23
other 23% −$30
politics 9% −$417
culture 3% +$412
world 3% +$103
tech 2% +$1
finance 1% +$25
weather 1% −$123
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +14.6% +3.7% 58% 40% -1.0%
≤30d 181 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 41% -5.5%
≤90d 293 +6.3% -3.8% 44% 36% -8.7%
all 330 +4.7% -5.2% 46% 32% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 32% -9.0%
10% -14.3% 25% -17.7%
15% -22.6% 21% -25.7%
20% -30.2% 18% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,924
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses152 / 178
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions80
Markets (closed)330 / 410
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 40¢ 75¢ $121 $225 +$104 (+87%)
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? Yes 44¢ 96¢ $77 $167 +$90 (+117%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $119 $161 +$42 (+35%)
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $164 $118 −$47 (-28%)
Will the announcers say "Own Goal" during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 55¢ 97¢ $44 $78 +$34 (+76%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 78¢ 85¢ $70 $76 +$6 (+9%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 49¢ 50¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 60¢ 68¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+13%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 10¢ 70¢ $7 $49 +$42 (+605%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 25¢ 97¢ $12 $48 +$36 (+288%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 97¢ $14 $48 +$34 (+236%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? Yes 35¢ 98¢ $17 $48 +$31 (+181%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 94¢ $28 $47 +$18 (+66%)
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 86¢ $33 $45 +$12 (+36%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 62¢ 89¢ $27 $39 +$12 (+44%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 69¢ $22 $34 +$12 (+55%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $19 $29 +$10 (+54%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28? No 76¢ 98¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+28%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+20%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 70¢ 90¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+30%)
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in June? No 79¢ 68¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-15%)
Will England win? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 62¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+99%)
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 83¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+34%)
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? No 48¢ 80¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $20 +$30 +152%
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Bejlek Jun 24 $233 −$8 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Kopriva vs Buse Jun 24 $118 +$32 +27%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $11 +$9 +79%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $42 +$5 +11%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $16 +$34 +206%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $118 +$32 +27%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $130 +$20 +16%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $138 +$12 +8%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $97 +$55 +56%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI Jun 24 $242 +$27 +11%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 24 $41 +$15 +37%
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Labaron Philon be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -96%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Nate Ament be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St Jun 23 $22 −$12 -55%
Set 1 Winner: Maristany vs Ortenzi Jun 23 $139 −$5 -3%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA Wo Jun 23 $140 +$15 +11%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C Jun 23 $101 −$21 -21%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard H Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 23 $76 +$4 +6%
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 23 $8 +$2 +22%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # Jun 23 $176 +$14 +8%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Jun 23 $61 +$6 +9%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $45 +$45 +101%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $48 +$53 +111%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $131 +$19 +14%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Argentina vs Austria FIF Jun 22 $133 +$9 +7%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 22 $77 +$12 +15%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $84 −$83 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 22 $20 −$19 -98%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $24 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 21 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 21 $165 +$15 +9%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 21 $83 +$22 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Own Goal" during the South Africa vs South Ko BUY Yes 55¢ $45 1h
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY Yes 62¢ $19 4h
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY No 63¢ $14 4h
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY No 63¢ $19 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 18¢ $9 6h
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY No 46¢ $1 9h
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 9h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA Worl BUY Yes 28¢ $9 11h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wo BUY Yes 25¢ $13 11h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA Worl BUY Yes 29¢ $15 11h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wo BUY No 54¢ $11 12h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wo BUY No 54¢ $27 13h
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY Yes 13¢ $2 14h
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY No 12¢ $2 14h
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Gro BUY No 26¢ $5 14h
Set 1 Winner: Kopriva vs Buse BUY Kopriva 78¢ $118 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wo BUY No 54¢ $27 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wo BUY No 53¢ $27 15h
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Bejlek BUY Sonmez 51¢ $78 15h
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Bejlek BUY Sonmez 51¢ $78 15h
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Bejlek BUY Sonmez 51¢ $78 15h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $157 16h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 18h
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr BUY Yes 62¢ $28 18h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 73¢ $41 21h
Will England win? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 23h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $39 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,923.75 · official $1,923.77 (match) · 3500 history records