Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7bb9…4aef crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$175 (+1%) realized +$176 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%41W / 3L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$573per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$29
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$141
other 13% +$32
economics 7% +$6
politics 7% −$50
world 5% +$3
finance 4% +$31
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 0% -3.8%
≤30d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 0% -8.4%
all 44 +1.4% -8.3% 93% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$799) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$907
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses41 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage253d
Avg bet$573
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $709 $711 +$2 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 97¢ 95¢ $199 $196 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 26 $373 +$24 +6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $511 +$6 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 12 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Jun 07 $396 −$9 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet May 31 $317 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? May 07 $304 +$13 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 03 $391 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 08 $390 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 27 $388 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $386 +$2 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 23 $547 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $545 +$3 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 05 $844 +$4 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 27 $466 +$5 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $370 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of February? Feb 26 $367 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 24 $822 +$12 +1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 09 $1,762 −$50 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $1,017 +$12 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $507 +$4 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $12 +$1 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 15 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $490 +$74 +15%
Aster all time high by December 31? Dec 14 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 05 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 24 $64 +$1 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 18 $490 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $494 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $877 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on November 2? Nov 02 $799 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $2,056 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 30 $2,047 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $2,045 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 October 20-26? Oct 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on October 27? Oct 28 $377 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on October 27? Oct 28 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 27? Oct 28 $1,191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 26? Oct 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on October 26? Oct 26 $1,963 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on October 17? Oct 26 $116 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $199 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $200 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $709 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $319 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $390 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $199 13d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $199 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $386 19d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? SELL No 95¢ $386 19d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $198 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $197 25d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $314 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 91¢ $314 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $197 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $197 36d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 91¢ $317 49d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $317 50d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 97¢ $396 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $391 79d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $390 88d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $390 91d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $388 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $388 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $386 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $174 95d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $560 95d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $547 101d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $547 102d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $304 113d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $545 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.25 · official $907.56 (match) · 132 history records