Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bb7…9a97 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-5%) realized −$71 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%66W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$72
14 days−$54
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 53% +$12
sports 26% −$24
other 18% −$95
world 3% +$16
politics 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -13.3% -21.6% 42% 41% -21.4%
≤30d 71 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 41% -10.0%
≤90d 132 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 46% -15.4%
all 132 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 46% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -15.4%
10% -24.1% 38% -23.5%
15% -31.4% 29% -30.9%
20% -38.2% 27% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses66 / 66
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions20
Markets (closed)132 / 152
History coverage59d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 34¢ 41¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 24¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 45¢ 62¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Yes 57¢ 10¢ $28 $5 −$23 (-82%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+122%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? No 30¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Yes 38¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +18%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +146%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +180%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$7 +712%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +123%
Cole Palmer: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $3 48m
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $26 48m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 1h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 1h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 32¢ $1 20h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 76¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.11 · official $122.19 · 363 history records