Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7B 0x7bb4…6fb5 crypto 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$96 (+9%) realized +$74 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%155W / 40L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$112
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$7
sports 36% +$44
other 3% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +25.9% +13.9% 51% 44% +26.8%
≤30d 195 +8.4% -2.0% 79% 21% +1.7%
≤90d 195 +8.4% -2.0% 79% 21% +1.7%
all 195 +8.4% -2.0% 79% 21% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 21% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 14% -8.0%
15% -19.9% 11% -16.9%
20% -27.8% 10% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses155 / 40
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions30
Markets (closed)195 / 225
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 20¢ 100¢ $9 $45 +$36 (+397%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Conor Gannon 11¢ 32¢ $6 $18 +$12 (+206%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 52¢ 76¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+45%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 42¢ 86¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+104%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Marco Cecchinato 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+60%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 69¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 72¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 52¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 90¢ 85¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 64¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 71¢ 67¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 71¢ 53¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 46¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 82¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Joao Fonseca 60¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Andrey Rublev 49¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $9 −$1 -14%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $9 +$2 +17%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $9 −$1 -12%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $9 +$4 +39%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $9 +$9 +95%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 16 $6 +$16 +265%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +87%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +109%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$7 +164%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 −$3 -44%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 +$80 +1285%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $6 −$2 -37%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 46¢ $3 9m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 47¢ $3 9m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 52¢ $3 38m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 52¢ $3 38m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 37¢ $3 38m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 65¢ $3 38m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 52¢ $3 38m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 64¢ $3 39m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 73¢ $3 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 50m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 16¢ $3 54m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 46¢ $3 55m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 55¢ $3 55m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $3 56m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 69¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 66¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 40¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 93¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 44¢ $3 1h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Robin Bertrand 38¢ $3 2h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 11¢ $3 2h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 10¢ $3 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Matilde Jorge 28¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 30¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 74¢ $3 2h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 57¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 44¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.15 · official $226.50 (match) · 493 history records