Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7bb3…2682 world 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38,168 (+28%) realized +$7,752 · open +$30,416
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%73W / 87L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$58,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,138
7 days−$1,216
14 days−$510
30 days+$891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$38,244
politics 5% +$1,509
other 4% −$1,561
tech 1% −$219
sports 1% −$460
economics 0% +$32
crypto 0% −$190
finance 0% −$80
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.8% -33.7% 0% 0% -21.8%
≤30d 11 -23.7% -30.9% 27% 27% -6.7%
≤90d 26 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 46% +4.6%
all 160 -7.4% -16.2% 46% 38% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 38% -3.1%
10% -24.2% 34% -12.4%
15% -31.5% 29% -20.8%
20% -38.2% 26% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$572) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$325 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$58,067
Realized+$7,752
Unrealized+$30,416
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses73 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)160 / 167
History coverage330d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 46¢ 90¢ $15,306 $30,167 +$14,861 (+97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $4,355 $12,995 +$8,639 (+198%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $3,243 $9,995 +$6,752 (+208%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3,720 $3,610 −$110 (-3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $865 $1,247 +$383 (+44%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes $90 $43 −$46 (-52%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 36¢ $72 $10 −$62 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,161 −$431 -37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $7,541 −$707 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,532 −$78 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,134 +$743 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Jun 02 $26 −$9 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $5,577 +$4,423 +79%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 28 $2,880 −$1,771 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $6,264 −$1,178 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 26 $815 −$814 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $3,500 +$750 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 10? May 10 $23 +$7 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 08 $2,300 −$1,820 -79%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $5,041 −$3,859 -76%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 23 $1,705 −$1,705 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $361 +$513 +142%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $528 +$1,126 +213%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $350 −$350 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1,500 +$800 +53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 19 $160 +$8 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $900 +$1,300 +144%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $4,525 +$10,475 +232%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $253 +$189 +75%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $319 +$181 +57%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? Apr 05 $643 +$377 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $2,648 −$998 -38%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $612 −$345 -56%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $273 +$137 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $120 −$48 -40%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 02 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $1,396 −$1,216 -87%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $2,721 −$2,613 -96%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Mar 01 $112 −$112 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $1,299 −$1,099 -85%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $2,470 +$1,294 +52%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $410 −$45 -11%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 19 $286 +$214 +75%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $335 −$230 -69%
Will the announcers say "Superbowl" or "Super Bowl" during the Nationa Jan 18 $8 −$3 -32%
Will the announcers say "Ohio State" during the National College Footb Jan 18 $14 −$11 -81%
Will the announcers say "Wind" or "Windy" during the National College Jan 18 $22 −$9 -43%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Jan 04 $27 −$27 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 04 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? Jan 04 $139 −$139 -100%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Jan 04 $155 −$155 -100%
Lebanon coup attempt by December 31? Jan 04 $121 +$94 +78%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31? Jan 04 $464 +$236 +51%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Jan 04 $2,607 +$393 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $760 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,254 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,298 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $57 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $30 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $100 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $288 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $167 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $70 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $64 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $488 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,067.10 · official $58,067.10 (match) · 1472 history records