Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bb3…b498 world 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$667 (+1%) realized +$365 · open +$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%262W / 75L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$230
14 days−$58
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2,026
other 22% −$716
crypto 13% +$136
politics 12% −$483
finance 9% −$953
tech 5% +$449
sports 2% −$182
economics 1% +$44
culture 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.8% -32.0% 44% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 57 -5.3% -14.3% 75% 32% -10.4%
≤90d 153 -0.8% -10.3% 78% 30% -11.3%
all 337 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 24% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 24% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 13% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 7% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$93 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$4,420
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$302
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses262 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions29
Markets (closed)337 / 366
History coverage262d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 78¢ 86¢ $450 $496 +$46 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 91¢ $380 $369 −$11 (-3%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 91¢ 94¢ $261 $271 +$10 (+4%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? No 89¢ 96¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? No 9¢ 10¢ $194 $206 +$13 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 15 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 65¢ 64¢ $188 $186 −$3 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $130 $160 +$30 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 82¢ $108 $157 +$48 (+45%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $151 $153 +$2 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 17¢ 14¢ $190 $148 −$42 (-22%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $119 $148 +$29 (+25%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 34¢ 48¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 59¢ 84¢ $94 $133 +$40 (+42%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 61¢ 62¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 37¢ 38¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 88¢ 92¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $420 in June? No 87¢ 94¢ $87 $94 +$6 (+7%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 2026? No 73¢ 68¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 70¢ $33 $75 +$42 (+126%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 40¢ 92¢ $25 $58 +$32 (+130%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 16 $101 +$9 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $200 +$43 +22%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 15 $1,438 +$201 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $318 −$266 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $585 −$11 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$14 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $177 −$171 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$25 -49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$24 -48%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $102 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $237 +$76 +32%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $131 +$19 +14%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $102 +$64 +63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$5 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $197 +$45 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$19 +12%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$3 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 01 $38 −$37 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June? Jun 01 $41 −$40 -97%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $284 +$24 +8%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $203 +$108 +53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$44 +22%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $525 +$40 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $100 +$5 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $471 +$26 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 30 $68 +$38 +57%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in May? May 30 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in May? May 30 $150 +$10 +6%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 30 $40 +$52 +133%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $143 +$100 +70%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 29 $24 +$20 +82%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $150 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 28 $403 −$403 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $100 +$1 +0%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $110 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $109 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $271 4h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 5h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 5h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 15 BUY No 80¢ $101 5h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 73¢ $101 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $124 30h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $633 30h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 7¢ $10 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 24¢ $206 47h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $216 47h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $151 3d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 91¢ $261 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 88¢ $53 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 88¢ $71 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 23¢ $43 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? BUY No 37¢ $103 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $103 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $269 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 97¢ $230 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 51¢ $102 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 18¢ $41 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 19¢ $15 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,420.35 · official $4,420.35 (match) · 1116 history records