Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bb1…7803 other 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$34
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$33
politics 25% −$17
sports 19% −$16
crypto 10% −$7
economics 7% −$9
world 6% −$5
finance 3% +$5
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 70 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 151 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 164 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 140
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage101d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $168 −$4 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 18 $152 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $180 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $534 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $224 −$2 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $58 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $95 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $155 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 11 $66 −$3 -5%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 10 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $17 $0 -3%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 09 $145 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 07 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $79 −$3 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $114 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 03 $66 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $351 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $166 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $153 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $282 −$2 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $201 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $69 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 2h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $57 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $58 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $57 22h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $52 23h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $53 28h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 28h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 33h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $64 34h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $63 41h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 42h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $56 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $56 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $56 4d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 4d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.33 · official $68.33 (match) · 710 history records