Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7B 0x7baf…8946 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%31W / 14L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$13
world 19% +$4
sports 8% +$4
finance 5% +$7
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.2% -9.3% 62% 54% -8.3%
≤30d 29 +1.2% -8.4% 66% 48% -7.5%
≤90d 38 +0.8% -8.8% 68% 42% -8.1%
all 45 -2.7% -12.0% 69% 40% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -8.2%
10% -20.4% 16% -17.0%
15% -28.1% 7% -25.0%
20% -35.2% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses31 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 51
History coverage131d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 74¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $29 −$5 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $36 −$7 -18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 +$5 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$3 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $25 +$2 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 24 $12 −$7 -59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $11 +$1 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $20 +$1 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $8 +$1 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $8 +$1 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $7 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 08 $38 +$7 +18%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $36 +$2 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $29 +$4 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $3 $0 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $3 −$2 -97%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 15 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 51m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 52m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $26 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $24 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 69¢ $30 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $36 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $36 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $16 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.20 · official $162.41 (match) · 117 history records