Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7baf…0d99 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+5%) realized +$36 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$58
world 25% −$43
other 9% +$36
politics 3% −$20
culture 2% +$3
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -75.1% -77.5% 20% 20% -81.9%
≤30d 11 -30.3% -36.9% 55% 55% -37.1%
≤90d 24 +5.4% -4.6% 71% 67% -15.7%
all 28 +11.4% +0.8% 71% 68% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 68% -4.9%
10% -8.9% 50% -14.0%
15% -17.7% 36% -22.3%
20% -25.7% 32% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$30 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage137d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$5 +19%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 02 $21 +$14 +65%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 28 $17 +$3 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 28 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 13 $23 +$5 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $21 +$13 +62%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 07 $15 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 07 $21 +$14 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? Apr 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 21 $15 +$28 +188%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Apr 10 $20 +$2 +11%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 30 $11 +$13 +117%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Mar 23 $24 +$26 +108%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $13 +$13 +104%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 20 $26 +$19 +72%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Hawks vs. Pacers Feb 07 $85 +$96 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $30 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 1h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $25 6d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 52¢ $14 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $20 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $21 20d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 29¢ $19 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 86¢ $18 28d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? BUY No 83¢ $17 32d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $20 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 35d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 81¢ $23 40d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $21 40d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $15 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $21 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 34¢ $15 60d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 81¢ $10 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 30¢ $20 68d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu BUY Top Esports 33¢ $37 79d
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $20 86d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 46¢ $11 86d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $17 110d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY No 48¢ $24 110d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $45 117d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Rockets 58¢ $26 120d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $13 121d
76ers vs. Trail Blazers BUY 76ers 62¢ $60 128d
Hawks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 47¢ $85 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.52 · official $42.52 (match) · 57 history records