Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7B 0x7bad…b8a8 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$33 (+4%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$106
14 days+$75
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$30
sports 6% +$42
crypto 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +31.8% +19.2% 67% 67% +17.0%
≤30d 29 +12.5% +1.8% 62% 62% -6.4%
≤90d 29 +12.5% +1.8% 62% 62% -6.4%
all 29 +12.5% +1.8% 62% 62% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 62% -6.4%
10% -8.0% 59% -15.4%
15% -16.8% 59% -23.6%
20% -25.0% 41% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$27 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage15d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $25 +$42 +165%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$6 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $24 +$13 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$28 +124%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$15 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +73%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$12 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$13 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$12 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$83 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$54 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 24h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 24h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 29h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $44 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $12 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.78 · official $24.78 (match) · 50 history records